Carnival (CCL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carnival reported a robust increase in net sales revenue for the 12 months ending August 2025, rising 7.14% year-over-year to a record $26.23 billion, which reflects strong consumer demand in the experiential travel sector. Additionally, the company experienced a substantial improvement in Economic Profit (EP), soaring 95.94% year-over-year to $673.9 million, alongside a notable Return on Capital (ROC) increase from 8.40% to 10.41% over the last twelve months. These financial metrics, coupled with the overall growth of the global cruise industry—growing approximately 7.7% year-over-year to $72.5 billion—underscore a favorable outlook for Carnival's continued success in the market.

Carnival Corporation has reported a significant reduction in its new ship delivery schedule, with only one ship set to launch in 2025 and no new deliveries planned for 2026, resulting in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for capacity growth of less than 2% through 2028, which is substantially lower than the industry average of approximately 6%. Additionally, the company's net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 3.6x with a target below 3x for 2026, indicating continued financial strain amid a challenging economic environment. Furthermore, various risks such as rising fuel prices, regulatory changes, and lingering effects from COVID-19 may negatively impact Carnival's financial stability and outlook.