Carnival (CCL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carnival Corporation, as the largest global cruise company, is experiencing a significant positive outlook driven by nearly 500 basis points of load improvement and enhanced capacity, coupled with a favorable macroeconomic environment. The company raised its full-year yield guidance by 100 basis points, indicating an expected uplift of approximately 12%, while maintaining margin estimates despite improvements in operational efficiencies and a strong order backlog. Additionally, the continued resilience of the cruise industry's core fundamentals, alongside healthy booking patterns and steady onboard spending, signals robust demand and operational stability moving forward.

Carnival Corporation's outlook is negatively impacted by a recent downturn in consumer trends, with notable softness in bookings observed in February, contributing to lowered expectations ahead of their upcoming financial guidance. The company's organic growth estimates for 2025 have been downgraded primarily due to competitive challenges and comp issues, while its capacity growth forecast remains significantly below industry averages, signaling a potential decline in market share. Additionally, the firm has scaled back its new ship deliveries, with only minimal capacity growth projected through 2028, further indicating that the market anticipates negative earnings revisions in the near future.