Carnival (CCL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carnival Corporation benefits from strong operational metrics, highlighted by a 500 basis points load improvement and an increase in full-year yield guidance by 100 basis points, reflecting the company's positive financial trajectory. The cruise line has successfully attracted 14 million guests in 2024, showcasing demand resilience and a robust value proposition that positions it favorably against other vacation options. Additionally, improvements in margin estimates, coupled with a healthy order backlog and continued restructuring benefits, suggest that operational efficiency will enhance profitability moving forward.

Carnival's stock faces a negative outlook primarily due to a significant decline in consumer sentiment, evidenced by softening booking trends reported by comparable companies and lowered organic growth estimates for 2025. Furthermore, the company has drastically reduced its new ship pipeline, resulting in a capacity growth compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of less than 2% through 2028, which is substantially below the industry average of approximately 6%. Additionally, investor expectations appear muted heading into upcoming financial reports, reflecting concerns over macroeconomic factors and a potential stagnation in revenue growth, leading to lowered EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027 by around 5% per year.