CBRL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. is expected to witness an increase in share value as investors become more confident in the company's turnaround efforts, which include menu innovation, improved service levels, and strategic pricing initiatives. The company's FY26 guidance reflects a conservative outlook that anticipates further growth driven by a unique bar-bell menu strategy and a significant expansion of its customer loyalty program, which now boasts approximately 9 million members. Despite a recent dip in traffic due to a rebranding initiative, the overall momentum leading up to this point has been positive, with the most robust traffic levels seen in three years, underscoring strong foundational drivers for future sales growth.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. faces a challenging financial outlook due to a projected EBITDA margin of 5.0% at the mid-point, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 140 basis points alongside a sales drop of approximately 2.4%. Despite anticipated menu price increases of 4.0-5.0%, which aim to outpace rising commodity and wage inflation, the company's adjustments indicate weakened profitability projections, particularly highlighted by the revised fiscal year 2026 same-store sales (SSS) estimate declining from +0.8% to -0.9%. These factors, combined with lower-than-expected margin guidance and ongoing pressure on sales performance, contribute to a negative sentiment regarding the stock's future financial stability.