CBRL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. is expected to improve its stock performance as confidence builds around its turnaround initiatives, which include menu innovation, better service levels, strategic menu pricing, and efficiency programs. The company is anticipating high marketing expenditures and investments in labor for the upcoming fiscal year, which are believed to enhance the overall guest experience. Furthermore, the positive traffic trends in F4Q25, driven by a growing loyalty program and improved dinner traffic, support a reasonable and potentially conservative sales outlook for FY26, suggesting significant future growth potential.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. has projected an EBITDA margin of 5.0% for the upcoming fiscal year, reflecting a decline of 140 basis points year-over-year alongside a sales decrease of approximately 2.4%. Despite anticipating menu pricing increases between 4.0% to 5.0% that exceed commodity and wage inflation, the company has revised its guidance for FY26 downward, indicating significant challenges with a same-store sales forecast of -0.9%, a notable shift from the previously expected +0.8%. Furthermore, while the company aims to achieve long-term cost savings of $55-60 million, its overall financial outlook remains strained, leading to lowered estimates which contribute to a negative sentiment regarding the stock's performance.