CBRL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. is poised for a positive outlook due to its effective turnaround strategies, which include menu innovation, enhanced service levels, strategic menu pricing, and efficiency programs that are expected to drive improved financial estimates and valuation multiples. The company has seen a significant increase in its loyalty program, now boasting approximately 9 million members, which, along with a well-received bar-bell menu strategy, is anticipated to improve customer traffic and overall sales performance. Despite short-term challenges related to marketing expenditures and labor investments, Cracker Barrel's near-term sales guidance remains reasonable and conservative, supported by recent traffic trends marking the strongest performance in three years prior to the re-branding initiative.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. is facing significant financial pressures, as indicated by an expected EBITDA margin of 5.0%, which represents a decline of 140 basis points year-over-year coupled with a projected sales decline of approximately 2.4%. Despite efforts to implement menu price increases of 4.0-5.0% to combat rising commodity and wage inflation, the company is struggling to maintain profitability in the face of these headwinds. Additionally, the revised guidance for fiscal year 2026 reflects a concerning outlook, with same-store sales projected to decline by 0.9%, a stark contrast to the previous growth expectation of 0.8%.