CAVA Stock Forecast & Price Target

Cava Group Inc's outlook is bolstered by strong new store sales, indicating the brand's growing portability and resilience even in a challenging sales environment, with same-store sales tracking at approximately 3% and an anticipated full-year growth of 4-6%. The company is set to pursue aggressive expansion plans, targeting over 1,000 stores by the end of 2032, supported by best-in-class new unit returns and annualized average unit volumes (AUVs) exceeding $3 million for Year 1. Additionally, CAVA demonstrates significant financial health with cash returns on new stores projected to exceed 50%, reflecting latent pricing power and the brand's leadership in the Mediterranean fast-casual category, warranting a premium valuation.

Cava Group Inc faces challenges reflected in its lowered 2025 guidance, with anticipated same-store sales (SSS) growth revised to 4%-6% from a previously expected 6%-8%, highlighting the impact of increasing operational difficulties and a challenging macroeconomic environment. Despite achieving a restaurant margin of 26.3% which exceeded consensus forecasts, the company's second quarter results revealed SSS growth of only 2.1%, significantly below the consensus estimate of 6.3% and the expected 4-5% range from buy-side analysts. This underperformance in sales growth, combined with the downward revision in future guidance, suggests mounting pressures that could negatively affect the stock's outlook.