Carrier Global (CARR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carrier Global Corp demonstrates a promising outlook due to its expectation that 40% of its portfolio, encompassing aftermarket and commercial heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (CHVAC) sectors, will experience growth exceeding double digits in the near term. Additionally, the company plans to implement a price increase of up to 5% in the Americas residential market, suggesting confidence in pricing power despite current industry challenges. Furthermore, anticipated margin expansion in 2026, coupled with potential accelerated recovery in key markets, positions Carrier favorably for improved profitability as market conditions stabilize.

The negative outlook on Carrier Global's stock stems from its recent preannouncement of 4Q25 EPS, which is expected to be approximately 12% lower than implied guidance, primarily due to ongoing weakness in the residential HVAC segment that accounts for around 50% of its revenues. In addition, Carrier has adjusted its 2025 EPS forecast down by 5 cents to $2.60, influenced by disappointing residential volume and compounded by adverse trends reported by competitors Trane and Lennox in the same sector. The company's guidance for 3Q25 has also been significantly revised downward, first being set 13% below consensus and now adjusted to 30% below, indicating consistent challenges within its operational performance.