Carlsmed Inc (CARL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carlsmed Inc. is experiencing significant growth in its surgeon customer base, achieving over 70% year-over-year growth and increasing overall utilization rates among trained doctors. The company's revenue for the third quarter reached $13.1 million, reflecting a substantial 98% increase, supported by a gross margin of 75.9%, which surpassed forecasts due to lower manufacturing costs and reduced inventory expenses. With an expanding focus on both lumbar and cervical fusion markets, and a strong compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% projected from 2024 to 2028, Carlsmed is well-positioned to capitalize on a $13.4 billion market opportunity in spine surgery.

Carlsmed Inc. faces a negative outlook primarily due to projected cervical revenue for FY26 falling short of estimates, indicating challenges in market penetration and slower adoption rates of its aprevo technology among surgeons. Additionally, the company is vulnerable to risks such as decreasing average selling prices, potential delays in entering the cervical spine market, and higher-than-anticipated operational expenditures, all of which could exacerbate financial difficulties. The substantial EBITDA loss of $30.7 million further underscores the financial pressures that threaten Carlsmed's ability to achieve its growth objectives and establish a foothold in the competitive spine surgery sector.