CAR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Avis Budget Gr is viewed favorably because the business still has substantial longer-term upside once market fundamentals normalize, with the analysis highlighting an intact $48 NAVPU, a ~4.85% NAV cap rate, and a 20% discount embedded in the target framework. Despite near-term headwinds from record-high incentives, a new lease spread that turned negative, and tougher Q1 revenue KPIs, the company is positioned to benefit as blended lease spreads recover toward 5%+ and excess supply in key markets eases. The arrival of new CEO Brad Cutsey at a cyclical trough could also support strategic execution over time, making current weakness look like an attractive entry point for patient investors.

Avis Budget Gr is facing a deteriorating earnings outlook as higher incentives and weaker new lease spreads are pressuring 2026 estimates, with revenue growth revised down to 1%-2% and incentives expected to rise to $16M, or about 40% q/q. Recurring profitability is also softening, as SPNOI growth slowed to 0.9% and SP revenue growth decelerated toward a 2021 low, while lease tenures under 2 years are seeing roughly 7%-11% rent erosion that may persist for 9-12 months. At the same time, leverage is high and rising, with net debt/adj. EBITDA near 9.9x and liquidity only modestly improving, leaving limited flexibility if rent growth and margin recovery remain weak.