CAR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Avis Budget Gr is attractive because the business is showing resilient rent growth dynamics, with CAD apartment rent up 0.8% q/q to $1,732/suite and average rent/sf up 1.0% q/q to $2.07/sf, while bad debt stayed contained at 0.8% of revenue. Despite sequential occupancy softness, the company still benefits from all-time-high average rents and market asking rent stabilization, which supports a longer-term recovery in lease spreads and stronger sentiment once near-term volatility passes. Liquidity improved by $48M q/q to $415M, and although leverage remains elevated at 9.9x net debt/adjusted EBITDA, the funding profile and refinancing activity at 3.74% suggest it can bridge to better fundamentals.

Avis Budget Gr is facing weakening fundamentals as revenue growth keeps decelerating, with Q2/26 growth near the 2021 low and 2026E reduced to about 1%, while lease spread pressure and negative new-lease economics suggest pricing power is eroding. Elevated incentives remain a major drag, reaching a record $4.8M and staying above forecasts, which compresses profitability even as recurring FFOPU fell 5.9% q/q and liquidity declined by $48M to $467M. The balance sheet is also worsening, with debt/GBV rising to 40.3% and net debt/adj. EBITDA at 9.8x, leaving less flexibility if weaker operating trends persist.