Canaan Inc. (CAN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Canaan is positioned to benefit from resilient Bitcoin prices, which have recovered ~43% since the end of 2Q, because its business remains closely tied to BTC-driven demand for mining rigs and self-mining economics. Its fundamentals are supported by improving operational leverage from low-cost power assets such as Project ABC, where installed hashrate reached 4.85 EH/s by July-end and the project returned $5.2M in cash in 2Q, while the company also held 1,868 BTC at the end of August. Management’s capital discipline, including the $30M repurchase program, ~16.4M ADS repurchased by 9/8, and continued progress on A16 efficiency and GW-scale power ambitions, suggests a stronger long-term earnings profile despite near-term pressure.

Canaan is under pressure because its core revenue model is tightly linked to Bitcoin prices, mining economics, and demand for rigs, all of which have weakened as weaker BTC prices and a shift toward HPC/AI have reduced purchasing appetite. The company’s 2Q26 revenue of about $32M missed consensus of roughly $65M, product sales fell about 70% sequentially, average selling prices nearly halved, and 3Q26 guidance of $11M-$15M signals continued contraction despite a ~15 EH mining base. Structural risks, including intense competition, chip supply constraints, regulatory uncertainty, halving pressure in 2028, and BTIG’s reduced FY2026/FY2027 revenue estimates to $159M and $361M with adj. EBITDA of -$170M and -$133M, reinforce a negative fundamental outlook.