Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Cheesecake Factory Inc. is projecting an increase in total revenue guidance for 2025 to $3.8 billion, driven by a higher number of restaurant openings and menu pricing expected to rise approximately 4% in the first half of the year. Improved operational efficiencies have led to a notable increase in North Italia's adjusted mature restaurant-level margins, reaching 18.8%, indicating the company's capacity to enhance profitability across its segments. With favorable consumer demand, strong guest satisfaction, and the expected contributions from emerging brands, the company is well-positioned for continued growth, which bodes positively for its overall financial performance and stock outlook.

Cheesecake Factory's stock outlook appears negative, primarily due to revised earnings per share (EPS) estimates that reflect faltering growth expectations across key segments, with 2025 EPS now lowered to $3.70 and a modest increase in the 2026 estimate to $4.24. Additionally, same-store sales (SSS) growth projections for both The Cheesecake Factory and North Italia segments have been reduced, indicating potential challenges in consumer demand, particularly as North Italia's growth is now forecasted at 0.0% for Q1. Furthermore, the company's revenue guidance of $920-930 million for Q1 falls below consensus expectations, coupled with a net income margin forecast that is slightly below expectations, reinforcing concerns about operational volatility and consumer traffic trends.