Citigroup (C) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Citigroup has demonstrated significant growth in headcount, indicating successful core investments and expansion efforts, as well as adjustments to meet regulatory requirements. The company is projected to achieve incremental progress toward its 2026 targets, enhancing operating leverage and improving return on tangible common equity (ROTCE), which is expected to support above-peer earnings per share (EPS) growth in 2025 and 2026. Furthermore, Citigroup's shares have outperformed the banking index year-to-date, trading at 1.0 times tangible book value for the first time in years, reflecting increased confidence in its financial performance and strategic initiatives, particularly in the Services and Markets segments.

Citigroup's CET-1 capital ratio is projected to decline from the mid-13% range to the mid-to-high 12% next year due to new regulatory minimum requirements, indicating potential vulnerability in its capital position. Additionally, the bank faces significant downside risks, including challenges in executing efficiency improvements and return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) alongside an unfavorable economic environment that could elevate losses in its credit card portfolios. Retail Services has experienced a consistent decline in spending volumes over the last ten quarters, further indicating a challenging outlook for overall financial performance.