Blackstone Group (BX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Blackstone's stock outlook is positively reinforced by a projected increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, rising to $6.60, primarily driven by higher performance revenues. The firm's scale and diversification have allowed it to capitalize on ongoing industry tailwinds and a cyclical recovery, with significant growth in private wealth flows, which increased by 53% year-over-year to reach $43 billion in 2025. Furthermore, expanding fee-related earnings (FRE) margins and an optimistic management outlook regarding capital markets activity suggest a solid foundation for future performance and revenue growth.

Blackstone, the world's largest alternative-asset manager, is facing significant challenges as it anticipates a decrease in transaction and advisory fee revenues in the fourth quarter of 2025, following a notable decline in segment distributable earnings, which plummeted nearly 50% from previous cycle highs. Additionally, the company expects its fee-related earnings (FRE) margins to shrink from the current 59.3% level, contributing to a cautious outlook for 2026 that could lead to downward revisions of Street estimates. Despite a solid headline performance in recent quarters, investor sentiment appears to be dampened, as reflected in the shares declining following earnings calls due to concerns over weakening management fees and margins.