BRSL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brightstar Lottery is supported by a resilient, infrastructure-like lottery franchise with long-dated single-provider contracts, strong U.S. scale, and recurring cash generation that management still expects to grow through iLottery adoption and Italy digital expansion. The company’s 1Q26 results showed $287 million of EBITDA on $587 million of revenue, while management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $2.50-$2.55 billion in revenue and $1.16-$1.19 billion in adjusted EBITDA, reinforcing confidence despite some U.S. softness. Additional upside comes from cashless vending machines, which have lifted same-store sales by about 6% to 7% in pilots, and from attractive capital returns, including $72 million returned in Q1 and a near-7% dividend yield.

Brightstar Lottery is facing a weak near-term setup because Mega Millions has not produced the expected recurring jackpot-driven upside after the April 2025 $5 ticket change, with customer hesitancy and only 6 jackpot hits since then limiting momentum. The company’s FY26 guidance remains unchanged, but Q2 revenue and adjusted EBITDA were set below consensus by mid-single-digit percentages to high-single-digit percentages, and Q1 was already below management’s expectations, increasing reliance on a second-half rebound. Further downside stems from contract renewal risk in key markets like NY, TX, and Italy S&W, plus FX, regulatory, inflation, and budget-deficit pressures that could weigh on margins and demand.