BRLT Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brilliant Earth Group Inc. demonstrated strong financial performance in the recent quarter, with net sales increasing by 10.4% year-over-year to $110.3 million, outpacing consensus estimates. Total orders grew significantly by 16.8% year-over-year, reaching 49,910, reflecting healthy customer acquisition and loyalty, particularly in the engagement ring segment which returned to year-over-year bookings growth. Additionally, the company reported record bookings in wedding and anniversary bands and a substantial 45% increase in fine jewelry bookings, indicating robust momentum across its key product categories.

Brilliant Earth Group's financial outlook appears negative due to significant declines in gross margin, which contracted over 300 basis points to 57.6%, falling short of both market expectations and internal estimates. This decline in gross margin has contributed to a shortfall in adjusted EBITDA, which was reported at 3.2%, down from 3.6% year-over-year, and below the expected consensus of 3.5%. Furthermore, the company faces continued margin pressure from rising metal prices and increased tariffs, prompting a downward revision of fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA forecasts to $13.2 million, substantially lower than the previous year's $21.1 million.