Backblaze (BLZE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Backblaze is viewed favorably because its low-cost, HDD-based capacity tier is well suited for AI and cloud workloads that need scalable storage close to compute, and management’s commitment to 2x throughput, 5x API requests, and 20x drive capacity supports that positioning. The CoreWeave agreement, a ~$335M five-year plus multi-exabyte deal, and NVIDIA’s tier-management validation both strengthen the investment case by showing that major AI infrastructure players see Backblaze as a reliable, independent storage partner rather than a direct competitor to hot-tier vendors. Fundamentally, B2 Cloud Storage is gaining traction with 24% y/y revenue growth, 28% ARR growth, and 110% NRR in F1Q26, while a broader partner-led go-to-market and improving profitability create a credible path for sustained expansion.

Backblaze is fundamentally challenged by its lack of profitability and its plan to keep spending on sales, marketing, infrastructure, and product development, which could prolong losses and delay durable free cash flow. Its competitive position also looks fragile against Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and other well-resourced cloud providers that can cut pricing, improve integrations, and pressure new-customer acquisition, while periodic price increases could lift churn and customer-acquisition costs. In addition, exposure to SMB customers leaves demand vulnerable to economic contraction, and any service disruption or high-visibility breach could damage trust, brand perception, and the company’s ability to sustain growth.