Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Bloomin Brands Inc. has demonstrated strong performance in its restaurant divisions, particularly with Carrabba's and Fleming's, which reported growth rates of +3.9% and +3.8%, respectively, significantly exceeding consensus estimates. The company's 2Q25 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.33 surpassed analyst expectations by $0.05, largely driven by modest comparable store sales upside and favorable tax conditions, despite a decline in restaurant margins. Additionally, the sequential improvement in comparable sales indicates positive momentum, although there are challenges within the Outback brand that may need addressing.

Bloomin Brands Inc. has reported significant challenges in its operational performance, exemplified by a 10% decline in three-year traffic metrics, which suggests persistent difficulties in attracting customers. The company has also lowered its 2025 EPS guidance by approximately 20% to a range of $1.00-$1.10, which is notably below the consensus estimate of $1.23, marking the second such cut within four quarters. Furthermore, the guidance for Q3 indicates a potential comp decline of 1% to flat, with an expected EPS of -$0.15 to -$0.10, significantly underperforming against a positive consensus of +$0.05.