Blue Bird (BLBD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Blue Bird Corp's Bus segment reported a significant revenue increase for FY4Q25, with approximately $384 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of around 19%, driven by higher bus deliveries and average selling prices (ASPs). The company's EBITDA margins improved to approximately 17%, marking a year-over-year increase of 480 basis points, indicative of robust operational performance supported by strong demand for both traditional and alternative-powered school buses. The outlook suggests continued revenue growth in the high-single digits as the company capitalizes on a recovery in the school bus market and the transition towards higher-margin, environmentally friendly bus models.

Blue Bird Corp has experienced a decline in backlogs, with units down approximately 37% year-over-year, indicating weakening demand that could negatively impact future sales and earnings. Additionally, the company faces significant competitive pressures, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) bus market, and is projected to see a contraction in EBITDA margins from 13.6% in FY2024 to the mid- to high-single-digit range by FY2026. Furthermore, various operational challenges, including reliance on key suppliers and potential public-sector funding issues, exacerbate the risks surrounding Blue Bird's ability to meet growth targets and maintain profitability.