BIRK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Birkenstock Holding is projecting a fourth fiscal quarter revenue of at least €520 million, representing a year-over-year increase of over 14% on a reported basis and more than 18% at constant currency, indicating strong sales momentum. For the full fiscal year 2025, the company expects revenues to reach at least €2.09 billion, up 15.9% year-over-year on a reported basis and exceeding prior growth guidance, reflecting robust operational performance and demand for its iconic models. Additionally, the company anticipates a gross margin expansion of 60 basis points, reaching 59.6%, along with significant growth in retail revenues from major U.S. wholesale partners, enhancing the outlook for adjusted EBITDA to €665 million.

Birkenstock Holding faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook, primarily due to an anticipated 400-basis point decline in revenue growth and a 100-basis point negative impact on margins attributed to foreign exchange rates in the fourth quarter. Additionally, product availability issues in the third quarter have modestly constrained growth, further complicating revenue projections. The company also contends with various macroeconomic risks, including volatility in commodity costs, weakened consumer confidence, and rising interest rates, all of which threaten its financial stability.