BIRK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Birkenstock Holding has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with an 18% increase in constant currency for the December quarter to €402 million, and a notable annual growth expectation of 15.4% for fiscal year 2026, which outpaced management’s prior guidance. The Americas and EMEA regions are projected to achieve double-digit sales growth in the coming years, supported by a compelling product narrative and an expanding mono-brand retail presence. Additionally, the company maintains a robust adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.2%, underscoring its operational efficiency and the financial health of the brand.

Birkenstock Holding is experiencing significant pressure on its gross margins, which have declined by 290 basis points to 57.4% for the most recent quarter, primarily due to a combination of foreign exchange fluctuations and heightened U.S. tariffs. Furthermore, the company anticipates that these margin pressures will worsen in 2026, projecting a 100-basis point decline in both gross margin and EBITDA, as tariff impacts are expected to surpass earlier estimates. Additionally, the ongoing shift from direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales to business-to-business (B2B) channels will likely constrain revenue growth, as it requires 2.5 pairs sold through B2B to match the revenue generated from a single DTC sale, further complicating the company’s financial outlook.