BFST Stock Forecast & Price Target

Business First Bancshares is viewed favorably because 2Q26 results showed resilient earnings power, with operating EPS of $0.71 beating consensus and NII rising to $77.8 million as core NIM expanded 8 bps to 3.68%. The outlook is strengthened by improving funding costs, new and renewed loans yielding 7.21% versus a 6.58% portfolio yield, and expectations that the late June loan sale will be NIM accretive in 3Q. Credit quality is also improving, as NPAs fell to $105.2 million from $121.7 million and management expects further resolutions in 2H26, while capital ratios rose and buybacks at sub-1.2x TBV support shareholder returns.

Business First Bancshares is facing a negative fundamental setup because 2Q26 core EPS of $0.71 missed estimates due to weaker fee income and higher non-interest expense, while core PPNR/share slipped to $1.00 from $1.03 in the previous quarter. Core fee income of $13.4 million fell short of the $14.0 million consensus, and the shortfall was tied to lower “other” fees, suggesting the company’s noninterest revenue engine is underperforming. At the same time, core operating expenses rose to $58.4 million versus $57.3 million expected, and even with some relief anticipated in 4Q26, the firm’s revised 2026 growth outlook for fee income and expenses points to only modest earnings leverage.