BlackBerry (BB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

BlackBerry is benefiting from a clearer pivot to higher-quality software revenue, with QNX driving the story through record design wins, a $950MM backlog, and royalties that rose $10MM Y/Y in Q2. The company also showed improving profitability and cash generation, as Q2 revenue increased 26% Y/Y to $163MM, adj. EBITDA reached $47MM, and operating cash flow was $29MM, while FY27 guidance was raised to $616-636MM revenue and $141-158MM adj. EBITDA. Although Secure Comms remains exposed to government procurement uncertainty, its renewed certifications and recurring enterprise demand support the company’s secure communications franchise, while expanding embedded software content in automotive and physical AI should sustain long-term growth.

BlackBerry is viewed negatively because its core growth engines are decelerating: Secure Communications revenue rose only 2% Y/Y to $61MM in Q2, below expectations, while ARR was just $221MM with NRR slipping to 91% and RPO declining 12% Y/Y. Management’s Q3 guide of $55-60MM for Secure Communications is well below consensus, and margins are under pressure from a higher mix of lower-margin SecuSUITE device revenue, suggesting profitability is not scaling cleanly. In addition, QNX growth is expected to slow, visibility into newer automotive and software-defined vehicle offerings remains limited, and valuation is already at the high end of BlackBerry’s 5-year historical range relative to peers.