BlackBerry (BB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

BlackBerry is benefiting from a sharper fundamental mix, with QNX driving record revenue of $80MM in Q2, 27% Y/Y growth, and $20MM+ of design wins that expand its royalty backlog, while core automotive, GEM, and physical AI partnerships deepen long-term visibility. The company also delivered strong profitability and cash generation, as consolidated adj. EBITDA reached $47MM on a 28.8% margin, free cash flow was $27MM, and net cash rose to $250MM, supporting capital deployment optionality. FY27 guidance was raised to $616MM-$636MM of revenue and $141MM-$158MM of adj. EBITDA, reflecting improving operating leverage despite some Secure Comms normalization and government procurement uncertainty.

BlackBerry is facing a negative fundamental setup because its growth is increasingly concentrated in QNX while Secure Communications is decelerating, with total RPO down 12% Y/Y to $128MM and current RPO down 14% Y/Y, signaling weaker near-term visibility. Although QNX posted record design wins and a $950MM backlog, management’s FY27 guidance still implies QNX growth slowing to 5% in Q4 and Secure Comms revenue falling to $260-270MM, reflecting government procurement uncertainty and tougher comps. The stock also appears richly valued after a significant re-rating, while share repurchases were absent in Q2, limiting a clear capital-return catalyst.