Alibaba (BABA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alibaba Group Holdings has demonstrated robust growth potential, prompting an increase in revenue estimates to RMB 1,028 billion for FY26 and RMB 1,144 billion for FY27, largely driven by the strong performance of AliCloud and core e-commerce segments. The successful integration of instant commerce within the Taobao app has led to a 20% rise in Daily Active Users (DAUs), indicating enhanced user engagement and higher traffic across its platforms. This positive trajectory, combined with expectations of accelerated growth and market share expansion, underscores the company's solid financial outlook.

The analysis indicates a negative outlook for Alibaba Holdings primarily due to lowered adjusted EBITDA estimates for FY26 and FY27, projected at RMB 184 billion and RMB 262 billion, respectively, which reflect increased investments in Quick Commerce. Additionally, Alibaba's disappointing performance in F1Q26 resulted from revenue estimates that did not fully account for significant asset divestitures and rising expenditures, particularly those related to Quick Commerce, which negatively impacted profit margins. Finally, while the company repurchased 56 million ordinary shares for US$815 million, this net reduction of 2.5% in share count indicates a focus on share value support rather than a strong operational growth trajectory.