B Stock Forecast & Price Target

Barrick Gold's robust production metrics in 2024, with nearly 3.9 million attributable ounces of gold and approximately 195,000 metric tons of copper, underscore its position as a leading global miner with long-term resource stability. The development of the Fourmile project, leveraging existing infrastructure for low capital intensity, is anticipated to enhance production efficiency over the next decade, alongside significant exploration potential. With approximately two decades of gold reserves and ongoing expansions, including the Lumwana and Reko Diq projects, Barrick's diversified resource base supports a positive outlook for sustained growth and profitability.

Barrick Gold's outlook is negatively impacted by high EBITDA multiples for its Newmont Goldcorp and copper segments, attributed to the lack of near-term production from key projects like Fourmile and Reko Diq. The company's shares are trading at a slight discount to their worst-case breakup value, with non-Nevada assets exhibiting a concerning implied valuation of less than 0.4 times net asset value. Additionally, the presence of above-average geopolitical risks and safety concerns in operational regions, such as Papua New Guinea and other areas, further exacerbates the uncertainty around the company's future performance.