American Express (AXP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Express has demonstrated a notable increase in new account growth within both its Consumer and Commercial segments, which serves as a vital offset to the deceleration in same-customer spending. Even though card fee growth has slowed, the overall increase in fee-paying consumers indicates a robust demand for its products, contributing positively to the company's revenue outlook. Furthermore, the emphasis on billed business growth highlights its importance as a core metric for American Express's revenue expansion, suggesting that an acceleration in spending could enhance financial performance moving forward.

The analysis indicates a concerning decline in New Card Acquisition (NCA) for American Express, which fell both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, prompting the need for a significant reduction in marketing growth to meet 2026 earnings per share targets. Despite a high-profile Platinum Card launch, the company's underlying business trends are weakening, suggesting that revenue growth could have stagnated at 5-8% without the refresh. Additionally, challenges in capital market valuations, including negative impacts from private credit investments, are likely to affect the spending behavior of American Express's super-prime consumer base.