Axon Enterprise (AXON) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Axon Enterprise Inc has demonstrated significant financial growth, with operating cash flows increasing by $110.1 million year-over-year to $250.2 million, and free cash flow rising to $225.4 million, an increase of $109.3 million year-over-year. The company's total contracted backlog now stands at $10.1 billion after a quarterly increase of $2.4 billion, suggesting a strong demand for its offerings in public safety. Furthermore, Axon's total revenues grew by 33% year-over-year, bolstered by a 37% increase in TASER revenue, which positions the company favorably in a market with a total addressable market (TAM) that has expanded to $129 billion.

Axon Enterprise Inc. faces significant financial challenges, including a remediation plan addressing a total revenue adjustment of $3.3 million and a net income decrease of $2.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, alongside similar historical adjustments. The company's net revenue retention rate has flatlined at 123%, indicating potential stagnation, while projected growth may slow to 20% or lower annually due to ongoing global supply chain constraints and heightened competition from alternative law enforcement weapon options. Furthermore, concerns over aggressive revenue recognition policies and technical partnership issues suggest underlying risks that could undermine investor confidence and affect future profitability.