AX Stock Forecast & Price Target

Axos Financial is experiencing strong loan growth, leading to an increased loan-to-deposit ratio of 104% as of September 30, indicating robust operational performance and a need for enhanced deposit strategies. The company's net interest margin (NIM) estimates for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 have been revised upward to 4.56% and 4.44%, respectively, supporting anticipated net interest income growth rates of 7% and 10% in those periods. Additionally, the projection of tangible book value (TBV) to grow by 24% over the next five quarters, compared to the KRX median growth rate of 12.1%, highlights Axos Financial's potential for significant financial expansion and operating efficiency.

Axos Financial faces a negative outlook primarily due to the potential compression of net interest margins (NIM), which may weaken near-term earnings growth and exert pressure on the company’s shares. Additionally, concerns surrounding the creditworthiness of its customer base could lead to a halt in growth, particularly if credit metrics deteriorate, further complicating the bank's financial stability. Furthermore, a significant decline in home values—especially in California, where the bank has substantial mortgage exposure—poses risks to asset quality, profitability, and regulatory capital ratios.