Aurora Innovation (AUR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Aurora Innovation is attractive because its Gen 2 autonomous trucks have already demonstrated driverless performance on major highways, logging about 500,000 driverless miles since commercialization in late April 2025 with no interruptions in the Dallas demo and no AUR employees in the truck. The company’s path to scale looks increasingly credible, with targets of more than 200 driverless trucks by year-end, over 1,000 by the end of 2027, and more than 30,000 trucks in 2030 translating to over $5B in annual revenue and more than 60% gross margin. Its partnerships with Volvo, Aumovio, and Hirschbach, plus $1.2B of liquidity as of 2Q and expectations to reach positive FCF in 2028, support a favorable long-term, asset-light growth thesis.

Aurora Innovation is viewed negatively because Uber’s repeated share sales have created persistent stock overhang and signaled that a major holder is recycling capital rather than deepening exposure, even as management tries to diversify the investor base. The latest update also disappointed investors by failing to provide clearer evidence of new OEM partnerships or fleet-order momentum, leaving the market with limited near-term proof that adoption is accelerating. The bear case is further reinforced by the risk that setbacks push out wider adoption, while faster technological progress by competitors could commoditize autonomous commercial driver software and reduce Aurora’s ability to win a growing share of US trucking miles.