Asure Software (ASUR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Asure Software Inc. demonstrated strong financial performance with a gross margin of 73.2%, reflecting a year-over-year increase and solid business leverage. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin is on track to expand by 500 basis points to a target range of 23%-24%, aligning with prior guidance, which further highlights operational efficiency. Additionally, the impressive growth in bookings, which surged 86% year-over-year, alongside a substantial backlog increase of approximately 300% year-over-year, indicates robust organic growth potential for 2025.

Asure Software's outlook is negatively impacted by a projected stagnation in recurring revenue during Q1/25, particularly from flat forms/W-2 revenue, which is expected to remain at approximately $5 million and impede overall growth. Additionally, the firm's Q4/24 adjusted EBITDA fell short of both internal and consensus forecasts, reported at $6.2 million against an anticipated $6.3 million, compounded by a revenue shortfall of 1% and a decline in the adjusted EBITDA margin. The company's non-GAAP EPS also missed projections, reported at $0.15 compared to forecasts of $0.17 and $0.18, indicating ongoing profitability challenges amid rising net interest costs.