Asure Software (ASUR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Asure Software Inc. has demonstrated impressive financial performance, highlighted by a gross margin of 73.2%, which reflects a year-over-year increase of 150 basis points, signifying effective business leverage. The company anticipates an expansion of its adjusted EBITDA margin by 500 basis points to a target range of 23%-24%, aligning with previous guidance, indicating confidence in sustained profitability. Additionally, with total revenue growth of 17% year-over-year and a remarkable 86% increase in bookings and approximately 300% growth in backlog, Asure Software’s strong organic growth trajectory suggests a favorable outlook for continued success in the Human Capital Management SaaS market.

Asure Software is anticipated to experience challenges in recurring growth, particularly in Q1/25, with forms/W-2 revenue projected to remain flat year-over-year at approximately $5 million, which presents a growth headwind. The company reported a Q4/24 adjusted EBITDA of $6.2 million, falling short of both internal forecasts and market consensus by 4%, alongside a non-GAAP EPS of $0.15, which underperformed relative to expectations of $0.17 and $0.18 from FactSet. Contributing to this negative outlook are a revenue shortfall of 1%, an adjusted EBITDA margin decline of 80 basis points, and unexpectedly high net interest costs, indicating ongoing financial pressures.