ASO Stock Forecast & Price Target

Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc is experiencing positive momentum, with traffic gains from higher-income consumer segments contributing to 40% of sales, alongside e-commerce growth of 22% year-over-year, representing 10.4% of total sales. Key product categories, including outdoor equipment and apparel, saw moderate growth driven by strong performances from national and private brands. Additionally, the company reported a 3% increase in total sales to $1.38 billion, with expectations for earnings per share (EPS) growth to accelerate as comp trends stabilize and gross margins improve.

The financial analysis reveals a concerning outlook for Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc., primarily due to a decline in operating margins which contracted by approximately 50 basis points to 9.0%, significantly impacted by external factors such as warm weather and cautious consumer behavior, leading to a negative comparable sales projection of (0.5%) for the third quarter of 2025. Additionally, the decrease in transaction volume by 4.1%, despite a 3.3% increase in average ticket size, suggests that demand is faltering, thereby putting further pressure on sales and profitability. Against this backdrop, the revision of EPS guidance for 2025 reflects only minor adjustments, indicating a lack of significant growth momentum, which contributes to the overall negative outlook on the company's financial health.