Array Technologies (ARRY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Array Technologies is supported by a stronger booking backdrop, with LTM bookings of $1.89B versus $971M in the prior twelve months and a 1.5x trailing book-to-bill, signaling healthy demand and improving market share. Its outlook is also reinforced by product differentiation, as OmniTrack, SkyLink, Hail XP, APA and the APA Solar Racking acquisition expand the company’s integrated offering and deepen wallet share while the U.S. utility solar market grows through 2028. Even with working capital needs, estimated free cash flow of $39M in FY26E and 44% to 42% EBITDA-to-FCF conversion in FY27 and FY28 reflect a capital-light model, and domestic manufacturing plus 45X credits can support margins and pricing power.

Array Technologies is facing a fundamentally negative setup because its growing preferred stock dividend and the $325 million Dec. 2028 convertible create an expanding capital burden that management has delayed addressing, raising the likelihood of a dilutive refinancing or equity raise. Although the business is generating positive free cash flow and management appears to be making operational progress, the preferred obligation is set to grow from 6.25% to 10.25% by mid-2031, while the company’s cash flow may not keep pace and liquidity is already being consumed by preferred dividends and refinancing needs. Valuation also looks constrained by weaker earnings quality, heavy U.S. policy exposure, low-margin international growth, and limited margin expansion levers, leaving the stock vulnerable even if the underlying solar tracker market remains constructive.