Ardelyx (ARDX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ardelyx Inc recently reported total revenue that exceeded consensus estimates by approximately $16 million, bolstered by an $8 million contribution from Ibsrela, prompting management to raise guidance for fiscal year 2025 by $10 million. The company's performance demonstrated a robust 27% quarter-over-quarter growth, excluding a one-time benefit from a returns reserve release in the previous quarter, while reiterating peak US revenue guidance of $750 million ahead of patent expiration. Additionally, Xphozah achieved US net sales that surpassed expectations by about $3 million, indicating early validation of Ardelyx's strategic response to the loss of Medicare Part D coverage.

Ardelyx Inc faces a negative outlook primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding its financial future, as indicated by the absence of guidance for FY25. Although the company has demonstrated a strategic approach to offset the loss of Medicare Part D coverage for Xphozah by targeting the non-Medicare market, which constitutes approximately 40% of the patient population, this strategy does not fully alleviate concerns about revenue stability. The combination of near-term uncertainties and reliance on a portion of the market that may not compensate for lost coverage poses significant risks to Ardelyx's financial performance.