Ardelyx (ARDX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ardelyx Inc. demonstrated strong revenue performance, exceeding consensus estimates by approximately $16 million, which included an $8 million contribution from its product IBSRELA, while management raised fiscal year 2025 guidance by $10 million. The company reported an impressive 27% quarter-over-quarter growth, excluding one-time benefits, and reiterated peak U.S. revenue guidance of $750 million ahead of patent expiration. Additionally, net sales for XPHOZAH surpassed consensus by around $3 million, indicating early success in the company's strategic adaptations following changes in Medicare Part D coverage.

Ardelyx Inc faces a negative outlook primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding its future financial guidance, particularly for FY25, following the loss of Medicare Part D coverage for XPHOZAH. Although the company has made efforts to target the non-Medicare patient population, which constitutes approximately 40% of the market, this strategy does not fully mitigate the potential impact of the coverage loss on overall revenue. The absence of clear and positive guidance raises concerns about the stability of Ardelyx's financial performance in the near term, contributing to skepticism about the stock's prospects.