Ardelyx (ARDX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ardelyx is viewed favorably because tenapanor addresses large, underpenetrated markets in IBS-C and dialysis-related hyperphosphatemia, with Ibsrela as the only non-secretagogue option and Xphozah offering a simpler, lower-pill alternative to phosphate binders. The bullish case is strengthened by the company’s >95% gross margin, specialty-pharmacy distribution support, and ArdelyxAssist, which should help preserve access and reinforce prescribing even as non-Medicare patients transition to Medicare over a 30-month timeframe. Although the departure of Mr. Foster and the challenging 2Q26 print with reimbursement headwinds create near-term execution risk, the combination of improving prescription trends, a $1B peak Ibsrela net sales framework that still appears achievable, and the Phase 3 CIC program expected to read out in 2H27 supports a positive long-term outlook.

Ardelyx is facing a weaker fundamental setup as its commercial execution is being pressured by reimbursement headwinds, with Ibsrela revenue missing consensus at $86.2M versus $92.6M and management cutting FY26 guidance to $350M-$370M from $410M-$430M. The resignation of Chief Commercial Officer Eric Foster, effective August 28, adds execution risk at a time when the company is already contending with more stringent prior authorization criteria, step edits, and slower new patient starts. Although Xphozah posted $31.9M in revenue and 27% y/y growth, management withdrew its $750M peak sales view, and Ardelyx ended 2Q26 with $281.8M in cash while still targeting profitability in 2027.