ARDT Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ardent Health Inc. demonstrated substantial financial growth, achieving an EBITDA of $143 million, which represents a 46% increase year-over-year and a notable margin improvement of 240 basis points to 9.1%. The company reported a 2.9% growth in admissions, aligning with their full-year outlook at the higher end, while inpatient admissions outperformed peers with a significant 5.8% growth compared to the industry average of 1.7%. Additionally, despite some upward pressure from professional fees, overall operational metrics suggest that Ardent is effectively navigating labor costs and improving volume performance, which supports a positive long-term outlook.

Ardent Health Inc's EBITDA for the third quarter totaled $143 million, which signifies a year-over-year increase of 46%, yet fell short of estimates by 2%, with much of the performance bolstered by a one-time benefit from Kansas State Disproportionate Share Payments. The transition to the Kodiak revenue cycle management platform has resulted in a significant revenue adjustment of $43 million and a conservative outlook on accounts receivable collectability, forecasting minimal to negative EBITDA growth in 2026. Moreover, increased claims denials and professional fee headwinds have compelled a notable reduction in 2025 and 2026 EBITDA-NCI estimates, anticipating a 25%+ downside impact on annualized "core" EBITDA generation spilling into the first half of 2026.