ARDT Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ardent Health Inc. demonstrated strong growth potential, with adjusted admissions increasing by 4.8% in 2025, surpassing management's guidance and reflecting a positive trend in volume metrics, including a 9.0% year-over-year growth in adjusted admissions and a 6.3% rise in total surgeries. The company is strategically positioned to expand its organic volume growth through adjacent service lines, particularly in ambulatory care, alongside improved patient engagement, which may enhance both market share and margins. Ardent's under-penetration in ambulatory surgery relative to peers presents a significant opportunity for growth, further supported by a revenue per adjusted admission increase of 3.4%, indicating effective operational execution and potential for improved valuation multiples aligning with larger competitors.

Ardent Health's adjusted EBITDA estimate has been revised downward to $595 million from a previous estimate of $625.5 million, reflecting concerns over elevated professional fees and a challenging regulatory landscape. The company's ambitious plans for ambulatory expansion and organic volume growth may not materialize, potentially leading to a significant downside scenario. Furthermore, Ardent's operating lease values suggest a lower multiple, resulting in a valuation that is discounted compared to its peers, indicating a lack of competitive positioning in the market.