ARDT Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ardent Health Inc. demonstrated strong financial performance, reporting an EBITDA of $143 million, which reflects a 46% increase year-over-year, along with an improved margin of 9.1%, up 240 basis points from the previous year. The company experienced growth in inpatient admissions, which rose 5.8% year-over-year, significantly outperforming the peer average of 1.7%, and aligned with its full-year outlook. Improved management of contract labor costs, which decreased to 3.5% of salaries and wages, indicates operational efficiency that, coupled with an increasing patient volume, contributes to a favorable long-term outlook for the company.

Ardent Health Inc. reported an EBITDA of $143 million for the third quarter, a 46% year-over-year increase, but this figure fell 2% short of expectations primarily due to the significant influence of an estimated $15 million to $20 million from Kansas SDPs, which are not expected to recur in the next quarter. The company also faced challenges with a $43 million revenue adjustment linked to its transition to the Kodiak revenue cycle management platform, leading to a conservative outlook regarding accounts receivable collectability, which could result in minimal or negative EBITDA growth in 2026. Furthermore, the adjustments made to EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026—down by $50 million and reflective of escalating claims denials and professional fee pressures—indicate a potential 25% or greater downside impact on annualized core EBITDA generation, reinforcing a negative outlook on the stock's performance.