APEI Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Public Education Inc has demonstrated strong year-over-year revenue growth, with a notable increase of 11.9% excluding GSUSA and a 15.6% rise in revenue for the Rasmussen University segment, driven by a 10.4% growth in total student enrollment and tuition increases. The company has also achieved significant enrollment milestones, with on-ground healthcare enrollments increasing 12.7% year-over-year and overall enrollment at Rasmussen University rising 8.9%, marking the sixth consecutive increase. Furthermore, the total segment EBITDA improved by 19.1%, reflecting operational efficiency and enhancing profit margins, which supports a positive outlook on the company’s stock performance.

American Public Education Inc has projected a significant decline in total net course registrations for the fourth quarter, estimating a drop of 23% to 33% year-over-year, primarily due to the impacts of the government shutdown and the temporary suspension of the TA program. The company's revised guidance reflects a projected revenue of $642.3 million for 2025, representing a modest increase of 2.8% year-over-year, yet falling short of previous estimates, particularly in adjusted EBITDA and diluted EPS, both anticipated to be below earlier forecasts. Additionally, management's fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $151.8 million, down 7.5% year-over-year, combined with diluted EPS projections that underperform consensus estimates, further underscores the mounting challenges faced by the organization.