APEI Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Public Education Inc. reported an 11.9% year-over-year increase in revenues for the third quarter, excluding GSUSA, highlighting strong growth momentum within its core segments. Notably, on-ground healthcare enrollments rose by 12.7% to 7,100, while overall enrollment at Rasmussen University increased by 8.9% year-over-year, marking the sixth consecutive enrollment increase, which signifies a robust demand for its educational offerings. Additionally, segment EBITDA grew by 19.1% to $26.2 million, reflecting improved operational efficiency and strong financial performance across its segments.

American Public Education Inc. is experiencing a significant decline in total net course registrations, with fourth-quarter expectations ranging from 65,000 to 74,400, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 23% to 33%, primarily due to the adverse impacts of the government shutdown and suspension of the TA program. Financial projections have been revised downward, with 2025 revenue anticipated at $642.3 million, an increase of only 2.8% year-over-year, which is below previous estimates, alongside adjusted EBITDA and diluted EPS also forecasted to fall short of prior predictions. Additionally, management's fourth-quarter guidance indicating revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations below consensus estimates indicates growing concerns over revenue stability and the potential for further enrollment declines.