Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Amrize is positioned to benefit from a powerful combination of scale, end-market exposure, and post-spin self-help, with five flagship plants, a broad product mix, and access to mega-projects and more than 90% of ~300 data center projects. Its outlook is further supported by management’s normalized targets for 5-8% revenue growth and 8-11% adjusted EBITDA growth, plus ASPIRE synergies of about $250 million through 2028, alongside organic capacity additions like 100K tons at Midlothian and a new Indiana shingle factory entering 2027. Improving volume trends in Q2, sequential cement pricing gains, and easing oil-related cost pressure from the $170 million annualized headwind should help margins, while discounted valuation and active capital deployment add further upside.

Amrize is facing a difficult fundamental setup because resurgent inflation and sustained high rates are pressuring construction demand just as tariff and trade policy add further drag to infrastructure, commercial, and residential activity. Despite 8.6% year-on-year revenue growth to $3,494 million in Q2'26, EBITDA rose only 5.8% to $986 million and margin fell 173 bps to 28.2%, as $75 million of oil-driven cost inflation was only partly offset by $29 million of ASPIRE savings. The bearish view is reinforced by the company’s Q2'26 consensus miss and FY guidance cut, plus a $78 million deferred revenue understatement tied to acquisitions, which highlights integration and controls risk after the 2025 separation from Holcim.