AMN Stock Forecast & Price Target

AMN Healthcare Services is attractive because its core Nurse and Allied business is showing clear stabilization, with Q1 travel nurse volumes of 9.2K, average bill rates up 6% Y/Y, and domestic travel staffing up 13% Y/Y, while excluding labor disruption revenue it still beat consensus revenue expectations. The company also delivered a strong Q1 with revenue of $1,378M, adjusted EBITDA of $166M, and margins of 12.1%, plus net leverage improved to 1.6x, supporting financial flexibility and tuck-in acquisitions like Jaide Health and ESSENTIAL Leadership Assessment. Further upside is driven by the prospect of a return to normalized growth in 2027, improving international nursing, stable bill rates, and margin resilience in language services and technology, which together could support operating leverage and double-digit EBITDA growth.

AMN Healthcare Services is facing weakening core demand as management expects Q2 segment revenue to be flat to down 2% year over year, which implies an 8% to 10% sequential decline excluding labor disruption revenue, while organic segment revenue already fell 4% in 2025 and is modeled to drop another 4% in 2026. Its profitability is also under pressure, with Physician and Leadership revenue down 6% to $164M and segment gross margin falling 120 bps year over year to 26.1%, while Nurse & Allied gross margin has declined about 500 bps between 2019 and 2025 amid a more competitive backdrop. The outlook is further clouded by concentration risk at Kaiser Permanente, which generated 22% of consolidated revenue and 32% of Nurse and Allied revenue, alongside nearly $1B in debt and the risk that further contract labor demand erosion could compress margins and strain debt service.