AMH Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Homes 4 Rent has demonstrated a positive occupancy trend, increasing sequentially throughout the quarter to 95.6%, which is atypical for this season, signaling strong demand in its key urban markets. Core revenue growth is projected between 2.5% to 4.5%, alongside anticipated net operating income (NOI) growth of 2.25% to 4.25%, reflecting a solid financial foundation despite expected increases in operating expenses. Additionally, the company reported a significant year-over-year increase in foot traffic of 15% in January, along with healthy blended rent growth of 3.3%, indicating robust rental market conditions and tenant demand.

American Homes 4 Rent has revised its anticipated development yields downward to the mid-5% range, reflecting a decline from previous projections amid ongoing challenges in the single-family rental market. The company has faced pressures from an oversupply of rental units, leading to weakened lease rate growth and resulting in lower expected financial performance for 2025, particularly with core FFO guidance aligning at $1.83 per share. Furthermore, AMH's expectations for new lease spreads have become more pessimistic, necessitating significant improvement in leasing conditions following a historically weak quarter.