AMH Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Homes 4 Rent has demonstrated a positive trajectory in occupancy rates, which increased sequentially to 95.6% during the quarter, aligning with pre-COVID leasing trends. The company anticipates core revenue growth between 2.5% and 4.5%, with net operating income (NOI) growth projected at 2.25% to 4.25%, indicating stable profitability in the face of rising operating expenses. Furthermore, foot traffic rose by 15% year-over-year in January, while renewal rates experienced a significant increase of 4.9%, suggesting strong demand and retention in the firm's key urban markets.

American Homes 4 Rent has revised its development yield expectations downward to the mid-5% range, reflecting a decline from previous projections due to increased supply and weakened lease rate growth in the single-family rental market. The company's guidance for core funds from operations (FFO) estimates for 2025 and 2026 indicates stagnation, with the 2025 midpoint remaining unchanged at $1.83 per share, while the 2026 projection was lowered to $1.90 per share. The current market dynamics, characterized by oversupply and diminishing returns, coupled with factors like rent softness and labor/material inflation, pose significant risks to financial performance and investor sentiment.