Alumis Inc (ALMS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alumis is supported by enviable late-stage momentum for envudeucitinib, with phase III psoriasis data showing PASI 75 of 76.5%/70.4% at week 16, PASI 100 improving to 41.0%/39.5% by week 24, and durable benefits in itch, scalp psoriasis, and quality of life alongside a well-tolerated safety profile. The company’s positive outlook is further reinforced by a 3Q26 SLE readout that could validate the pipeline-in-a-pill thesis and support partnering discussions, while model assumptions imply $3.4 bn peak 2035E sales for psoriasis, $81.3 mm for SLE, and $139.4 mm for A-005. Although Takeda’s zasocitinib is a competitive benchmark, envu’s more consistent PASI 100 performance and favorable patient-reported outcomes across a difficult-to-treat population strengthen the fundamental case.

Alumis is fundamentally challenged by its lead SLE program, as the Phase IIb LUMUS study in 408 patients missed both primary and key secondary endpoints in the overall population, leaving the regulatory path uncertain and potentially requiring two Phase III trials that could delay approval by 2-3 years. Although IFNG-high subgroup data were encouraging and safety looked clean versus placebo, the inverse-dose response, elevated placebo effects, and uncertainty around FDA acceptance of post-hoc evidence weaken confidence in near-term value creation. With roughly $17/share of value tied to envudeucitinib in psoriasis and net cash contributing little, the stock remains exposed to clinical, regulatory, competitive, and financing risk while other indications lack established proof of concept.