Alkermes (ALKS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alkermes PLC is poised for positive revenue growth through 2030, driven in part by the acquisition of Lumryz, which is projected to achieve annualized sales of approximately $265-$275 million by 2025, eventually growing to $550 million in narcolepsy and $250 million in idiopathic hypersomnia. The company’s strategic focus on developing alixorexton and continuing growth for existing products, such as Aristada and Lybalvi, also supports expectations for increased earnings per share (EPS). Overall, the acquisition of Lumryz is seen as a highly leverageable opportunity that enhances Alkermes's commercial prospects while maintaining a stable financial outlook.

Alkermes PLC faces a negative outlook primarily due to projected challenges in the growth trajectory of its key product, Lumryz, which is expected to peak at nearly $600 million in sales by 2030 before experiencing modest declines and a loss of exclusivity in 2037. The company's reliance on the success of its orexin program presents significant risks, as early-stage data on efficacy and safety remain to be validated, and headwinds from an evolving competitive landscape could negatively impact market share and overall earnings. Additionally, Alkermes's exposure to Medicaid may intensify revenue pressure, particularly in light of the diminishing competitiveness of its proprietary products and an anticipated erosion of the royalty business impacting earnings throughout the decade.