Align Technology (ALGN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Align Technology's stock demonstrates a positive outlook due to significant growth metrics, including an 8.3% year-over-year increase in teen case starts, primarily driven by strong performance in the APAC and EMEA regions. In the third quarter, the company recorded new Invisalign case starts of 647.8k, marking a 4.9% increase from the previous year, while management anticipates further sequential growth in revenue and adjusted operating margins. Additionally, the favorable geographic mix, with international and teen cases performing well, positions Align Technology for continued outperformance, and this trend has resulted in a notable rise in stock value following the latest performance report.

Align Technology's stock faces a negative outlook primarily due to persistent revenue visibility challenges and significant pressure on average selling prices (ASP), which have decreased for seven consecutive quarters. Data indicates that while the company continues to experience growth in certain segments, the overall ASP has fallen year-over-year by 3.9%, driven by a strong performance in lower ASP markets and ongoing share losses in the aligner category. Additionally, the projection for a 1.5% decline in ASP for FY26, coupled with a first-quarter non-GAAP operating margin outlook that fell short of previous estimates, raises concerns about the company's ability to sustain profitability amidst a competitive landscape and broader economic uncertainties.