ALEX Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alexander & Baldwin Inc. has demonstrated strong same-store net operating income (NOI) growth, prompting management to revise its 2025 forecast upward by 80 basis points to a range of 3.4-3.8%, primarily driven by higher occupancy rates reaching 95.6%, which reflects a 140 basis point increase year-over-year. The company is effectively monetizing its land bank, with several developments currently underway and new leasing commitments enhancing its revenue potential. Furthermore, the presence of high barriers to entry in the market, combined with a solid track record and low liquidity, positions Alexander & Baldwin favorably for continued growth.

Alexander & Baldwin Inc faces significant risks that could negatively impact its financial performance, primarily due to geographic concentration and dependence on retail sales, which may slow as personal consumption trends decline. The company is also exposed to rising interest rates, which can lead to earnings dilution from maturing debt, reduced return potential from new investments, and increased capitalization rates that could diminish property valuations. Additionally, the challenges posed by tourism fluctuations and a transient population in Hawaii may further strain local retail sales, increasing competitive pressures.