ALC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alcon demonstrated positive performance in its financials for 4Q24, with a notable year-over-year increase in contact lens market share and a 2% growth in Ocular Health sales amounting to $416 million. Additionally, Consumables sales reached $738 million, reflecting a 7% growth compared to the previous year. The company's core operating margin improved to 20.1%, an increase of 120 basis points year-over-year, surpassing the consensus expectation of 20.0%.

Alcon faces risks of weaker than expected revenue growth, primarily due to potential market share losses in the intraocular lens and contact lens segments, coupled with slower improvements in profit margins. The bear case scenario predicts flat to low-single digit revenue growth and minimal operating expense leverage, leading to slower than anticipated earnings per share growth. Additionally, while the Vision Care segment's operating margin has seen an increase, the Surgical segment's operating margin has declined, indicating underlying challenges in profitability despite certain strengths in specific products.