ALC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alcon demonstrates a strong position in the contact lens market, capturing approximately 25% of the U.S. market, with the retail value of contact lenses expected to stabilize and grow above mid-single-digit market growth rates. The company's focus on operational efficiencies is anticipated to lead to continued margin improvements, resulting in double-digit earnings per share (EPS) growth. Alcon's robust product portfolio and established infrastructure further support its capacity for sustained financial performance in the vision care and surgical segments.

Alcon faces significant risks that could adversely affect its revenue growth, particularly stemming from potential market share losses in both the intraocular lens (IOL) and contact lens segments. The company's bear case scenario suggests it may experience flat to low-single-digit revenue growth alongside minimal operating expense leverage, which would hinder earnings per share (EPS) growth expectations. Furthermore, the pre-buying phenomenon leading up to a price increase in February 2024 could create challenging year-over-year comparisons that may impact future performance.