AIG (AIG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

American International Gr is positioned favorably because its core fixed income portfolio should continue to benefit from higher new money yields, while improving private equity results and disciplined capital deployment support earnings resilience. Management’s reaffirmed spring 2025 investor day goals point to operating EPS CAGR of 20%+, a GI expense ratio below 30% by end of 2027, core operating ROE of 10% to 13%, and up to $1 billion of annual repurchases alongside 10%+ dividend growth. Fundamentally, the business is also executing well, with General Insurance underwriting income up 10% to $686 million, net premiums written rising 9% in commercial and 7% in personal lines, and combined ratios improving to 84.0% and 92.9% respectively.

American International Gr is viewed negatively because its capital strategy favors re-levering the underwriting engine through organic growth and M&A rather than buybacks, despite being overcapitalized at 0.61x TTM net premiums written to adjusted shareholders’ equity. Competitive pricing and a softening market are expected to constrain premium growth and limit operating leverage, even with 2Q26 net premiums written up and combined ratios still in the high 80s-to-low 90s. Its 2Q26 reported ROE of 9.4% lags peers, and even the projected move to 0.67x NWP/adjusted equity by 2027 is seen as insufficient to lift returns materially above the 10-13% target.