AFG Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Financial Group is well-positioned for future growth, as evidenced by significant expected increases in net written premiums, projecting $7,340 million in 2025 and $7,718 million in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 2.8% and 5.1%, respectively. The company has demonstrated resilience by outperforming the KBW Insurance Index over various time frames, indicating strong investor confidence, largely attributed to the successful completion of its remediation efforts. Furthermore, the anticipated improvement in core loss ratios within the property and casualty insurance sector supports a favorable outlook, especially as historical trends suggest profitability improvements following peak pricing.

American Financial Group has revised its earnings per share (EPS) estimates downward for 2025 and 2026, reducing them to $9.90 and $11.85, respectively, from previous projections of $10.10 and $12.05, reflecting concerns over a recent second-quarter underperformance and anticipated higher core loss ratios and lower net investment income (NII). Despite expectations of faster premium growth, larger reserve releases, and lower catastrophe and expense ratios, these factors may be insufficient to offset the negative outlook driven by the deterioration of core earnings stability. The company's reliance on insurance operations, particularly in specialized commercial products, may strain financial performance in a challenging market environment, further contributing to the cautious forecast.