Addus HomeCare (ADUS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Addus HomeCare Corp demonstrates a solid financial outlook driven by significant revenue growth across its key segments, particularly in Hospice, which reported a year-over-year revenue increase of 7.8% and benefits from strong rate increases and improved admissions. Additionally, the Home Health segment showed a revenue growth of 1.6% year-over-year, reflecting successful optimization of case loads, while an anticipated positive trend in Personal Care Services revenue growth of 3-5% in 2025 aligns with the return to normalized admissions post-Medicaid redetermination. Lastly, recent consensus estimates for 2025 have exhibited upward revisions, with revenue, EBITDA, and EPS projections increasing by 11%, 15%, and 8%, respectively, indicating growing confidence in Addus's financial trajectory following strategic acquisitions.

Addus HomeCare Corp is facing a negative outlook primarily due to declining volumes in its Home Health segment, which reported a -3.2% year-over-year growth in same-store volumes and a -6.2% decrease in new admissions. Revenue figures also missed expectations, with Home Health revenues falling -2.7% short of models due to lower volumes, even as rates improved by +8.7% year-over-year. Additionally, gross margin compression of approximately 200 basis points is expected in the first quarter of 2025, exacerbated by the inclusion of Gentiva and seasonal factors, further contributing to a downward revision in projected adjusted EBITDA for 2025 through 2027.