Autodesk (ADSK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Autodesk is projected to achieve total revenue of $1,631 million for Q4, reflecting an 11% year-over-year growth, significantly driven by its Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) segment, which is expected to grow 12%. The company recorded impressive billings growth of 23% to $2.109 billion, surpassing consensus estimates, primarily due to a strategic shift towards annual billings for multi-year contracts. Additionally, Autodesk's non-GAAP operating margin improved to 37%, marking a favorable year-over-year increase, further underscoring the firm's operational efficiency amid broad-based revenue growth across its product lines and geographic regions.

Autodesk's stock is facing a negative outlook primarily due to high vacancy rates in North America's office spaces, which are expected to hinder commercial design activity through at least 2025, alongside broader macroeconomic challenges. The company's lower-than-expected GAAP EPS guidance stems from restructuring charges linked to workforce reductions, while the Architectural Billings Index (ABI) remains below 50, indicating ongoing weakness in contracting billing activity. Additionally, Autodesk is grappling with the transition to new transaction models and annual billing practices, coupled with overvaluation relative to peers, as evidenced by pricing metrics such as EV/FCF, suggesting a level of financial strain ahead.