AECOM (ACM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

AECOM is supported by a well-diversified global platform spanning water, transportation, environment, and other infrastructure end markets, with a 55%/45% public/private net service revenue split that helps stabilize demand through the cycle. Its adjusted EBITDA rose from $657 million in F2019 to $1.203 billion in F2025, while margin expanded from 10.6% to 15.9%, reflecting stronger execution, cost discipline, and a richer mix of higher-margin advisory and program management work. The outlook is further bolstered by record backlog, 1.6x overall book-to-bill, 5–8% organic NSR growth guidance, and a capital-allocation strategy that returns substantially all free cash flow to shareholders, including buybacks and a dividend.

AECOM is facing a negative outlook because a $337 million charge tied to delayed completion and higher costs on a legacy Construction Management project exposed execution risk in a business long viewed as lower risk. The overhang is not isolated: claims in contract assets rose to about $620 million, cash outflows of $600-800 million are expected to complete the projects, FCF was only $55 million in 3Q, and net leverage increased to 1.5x. Although backlog reached a record $27.8 billion and fiscal 2025 sales were $16.1 billion, slower CM starts, Middle East headwinds, lower FY2026 guidance, and the risk of paused buybacks point to a “show-me” story until 2027.