Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Acadia Healthcare Co Inc demonstrates a strong outlook due to its ability to achieve impressive organic growth driven by demand in the behavioral health sector, with sustained expansion from bed additions and new facility developments. The company's robust capital position allows for potential mergers and acquisitions, while operational improvements in underperforming facilities may lead to increased profitability and an enhanced EBITDA multiple. Additionally, management’s long-term growth targets of 7-9% revenue growth and 8-10% EBITDA growth, alongside expected Medicaid payment increases and reduced referral headwinds, further support a favorable financial trajectory.

Acadia Healthcare Co Inc. is anticipated to experience further revenue pressures due to persistent volume softness, leading to a projected FY25 EBITDA that is expected to fall approximately 10% below current estimates. The company's revised long-term targets indicate a decline in EBITDA margins, moving from 22.5% in 2024 to an estimated 21.7% by 2028. Additionally, the significant stock price drop of over 25% following weaker than expected guidance for 2025 reflects a substantial contraction in the forward enterprise multiple, which is now projected to be around 6.0x, markedly lower than historical averages for acute care hospitals.