ABG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Asbury Automotive Group is attractive because its earnings trough appears set to give way to a sharp inflection, with double-digit earnings growth expected in 2027 and further upside tied to company-controlled initiatives rather than unit-volume dependence. More than half of its 158 stores have been transitioned to Tekion, which should lower SG&A through higher personnel and process efficiency, while the July 2025 Chambers acquisition adds scale and offers room to improve service, parts, and marketing profitability. The company also screens cheaply at 8.3x and 7.4x estimated 2026/2027 EPS, and proactive capital allocation—share repurchases, asset sales, and leverage reduction toward below 3x by 2027—supports per-share earnings growth.

Asbury Automotive Group is viewed negatively because its KPIs have lagged the group, with the lowest average same-store New Unit, Used Unit, Service & Parts Revenue, and Gross Profit growth over the last three years, which has already translated into earnings volatility. The outlook is also pressured by a forecast 7.2% EPS decline in 2026, driven by the Tekion DMS transition and the non-cash Total Care Auto deferral headwind, while a macro slowdown, less favorable M&A backdrop, and possible higher U.S. tax rates could further crimp growth and profitability. Even though Asbury generated about $18 billion of revenue in 2025 and targets at least $30 billion around 2030, the combination of cyclical demand risk, dealer acquisition dependence, and leveraged balance sheet leaves execution risk elevated.