ABG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Asbury Automotive Group is attractive because its recent KPI and earnings weakness appears temporary, with the Tekion DMS rollout nearing completion and transition-related headwinds expected to fade, allowing cost savings to emerge. The company’s scale—158 new-vehicle stores, 37 collision centers, and about $18 billion of revenue in 2025—supports operating leverage, while over 70% of new-vehicle revenue coming from luxury and import brands adds margin resilience. Management also has multiple EPS catalysts in its control, including Chambers integration, SG&A reduction, used-car optimization, and disciplined capital allocation through buybacks and deleveraging toward below 3x leverage.

Asbury Automotive Group is viewed negatively because its same-store growth in new units, used units, service and parts revenue, and gross profit has lagged peers over the last three years, and that weakness has already translated into earnings volatility. The outlook is further pressured by a forecast 7.2% decline in EPS for 2026, the risk of a macro slowdown, and the possibility that an EV-driven reduction in service and parts demand could erode a key profit engine. Its leverage, reliance on acquisitions and manufacturers, and the $1.29 EPS headwind from Total Care Auto accounting add additional uncertainty and may keep results optically and fundamentally under pressure.