Apple (AAPL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Apple's financial performance in F4Q25 demonstrates strong resilience, with sales increasing by 8% to $102.5 billion, aligning closely with estimates and reflecting continued growth momentum driven primarily by iPhone sales, projected to grow by double digits in the upcoming quarter. Service revenue showcased robust growth, rising by 15% year-over-year, which is critical as it contributes to gross margin expansion and complements Apple's hardware offerings. The company is also anticipating a revenue growth range of 10-12% year-over-year for F1Q26, indicating positive expectations in market performance, particularly enhanced by successful product innovations and strategic partnerships.

The analysis indicates a negative outlook on Apple's stock primarily due to a decline in sales within the Greater China region, which reported a year-over-year decrease of 3.6%, potentially signaling waning demand in a critical market. Furthermore, Apple's valuation is considered near peak levels, which raises concerns about price depreciation should the company's growth falter or its reputation diminish. Despite stable gross margins of approximately 47%, rising operational expenses could further pressure profitability, especially if iPhone sales, which significantly contribute to overall revenue, underperform.